A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
